Valerio Lucarini honoured with the 2021 AGU Ed Lorenz Lecture
The AGU (American Geophysical Union) honour is an acknowledgement of professor Lucarini’s outstanding work in geoscience. “It is an amazing feeling and a great pleasure to be selected for this honour by the American Geophysical Union, especially considering that previous … Continued
The Sun’s 11-year cycle cannot explain global warming
An analysis of observational data and a large climate model finds Earth’s 11-year cycle is out of sync with solar fluctuations The Earth’s global climate system fluctuates in 11-year and 3,5-year cycles find Yizhak Feliks, Justin Small and Michael Ghil. The … Continued
Ocean current system seems to be approaching a tipping point
The AMOC, a system of ocean currents influencing weather patterns globally and responsible for the mild European climate shows signs of stability loss The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may have been losing stability in the course of the last … Continued
Predicting future extreme weather
We know anthropogenic climate change will increase the probability of extreme weather events. But how much and in which regions? Valerio Lucarini and Vera Melinda Galfi demonstrate in Physical Review Letters that it is possible to estimate the probability of … Continued
Improved prediction of Indian summer Monsoon onset three months in advance using machine learning
The result is encouraging as the Indian monsoon might become less regular due to future global warming The onset of the Indian summer monsoon has been predicted three months ahead for the last 40 years with the highest precision up … Continued
Studies add to concern about climate tipping
Tipping found in models of the Gulf Stream and North American mid-latitude wind systems add to the growing concern that anthropogenic climate change might be abrupt and irreversible Two model studies document the probability of climate tipping in Earth subsystems. … Continued
TiPES-paper highlighted by Nature Communications
“Future climate change shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation response” by Katinka Bellomo, Michela Angeloni, Susanna Corti and Jost von Hardenberg from the National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), Turin, Italy … Continued
North Atlantic ocean circulation is key to understanding uncertainties in climate change predictions
The accuracy of climate predictions depends crucially on how the ocean circulation of the North Atlantic is incorporated into climate models, a TiPES-study shows Thirty state-of-the-art IPCC-climate models predict dramatically different climates for the Northern Hemisphere, especially Europe. An analysis … Continued
Trust the machine – it knows what it is doing
New theoretical insights provide a physically sound understanding of machine learning-based simplified climate models Machine learning, when used in climate science builds an actual understanding of the climate system, according to a study published in the journal Chaos by Manuel … Continued
Part of the Greenland ice sheet may be close to a tipping point
An analysis of the melt situation on the Central-Western Greenland ice sheet reveals clear signs of tipping Data from the Jakobshavn drainage basin of the Central-Western Greenland ice sheet reveals the distinct mark of this part of the ice sheet … Continued