An innovative way to evaluate and compare the performance of climate models
TiPES scientists Michael Ghil and Valerio Lucarini (together with Gabriele Vissio and Valerio Lembo) propose a metric to compare and evaluate climate simulations in Geophysical Research Letters. No climate model simulates all climatic processes correctly. Each IPCC-class model has its … Continued
Niklas Boers wins the 2021 Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award
Niklas Boers, head of PIK’s FutureLab “Artificial Intelligence in the Anthropocene” at Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, and associate coordinator of the TiPES project has been awarded the European Geosciences Union Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award for 2021 in … Continued
PaleoJump – a TiPES database for research on rapid climate transitions
PaleoJump is a new TiPES database for research on rapid transitions in paleoclimates by Witold Bagniewski, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Michael Ghil, and Jens Fohlmeister. “Paleoclimate records vary in their origin, nature, quality, and resolution. So, it is a daunting task to … Continued
Time to improve the IPCC estimates on the economic cost of anthropogenic climate change
We need a better understanding of how climate change is going to impact and disrupt the world economy. That can be achieved through calculations based on combining tools of dynamical systems theory and statistical physics. This combination of methods is known to improve the assessment of … Continued
Droughts in the Amazon rainforest can be predicted up to 18 months in advance
Monitoring surface temperatures in two regions of the Atlantic Ocean will reliably forecast droughts in South America. Droughts impact millions of people and threaten the delicate ecosystems of the Amazon rainforest in South America. Now a study within the TiPES … Continued
Climate changed in steps in the past
4 distinct modes dominated Earth’s climate the last 66 million years, new study suggests An international study published in Science significantly improves the potential for understanding how the Earth’s climate system evolved over the past 66 million years. The work … Continued
Anthropogenic CO2 increase is unprecedented
Today’s anthropogenic CO2 rise is more than six times larger and almost ten times faster than previous pulse-like releases to the atmosphere. This is the conclusion reached by a European research team led by the University of Bern. The study … Continued
Climate will probably warm more than we’d hoped
Low warming scenarios become more unlikely after new estimate of climate sensitivity Between 2.6 and 3.9 degrees. Not 1.5 and 4.5 degrees Celsius. That is how much the climate will likely warm if we double the amount of CO2 in … Continued
How to improve climate modeling and prediction
TiPES scientists propose ideas for much more effective climate simulations than the traditional approach allows.
Setting up an Alarm System in the Atlantic Ocean
Laura Jackson and Richard Wood from The Met Office, UK have identified metrics that may give us early warnings of abrupt changes to the European Climate. An important goal in climate science is to establish early warning systems – a … Continued