Key findings and recommendations from the H2020 projects on Tipping Points: TiPES, COMFORT, TiPACCs available

Policy-brief May 2022Download

Here your find the publicly available TiPES H2020 deliveries, as well as a short description of them.

Below you can find a list of all TiPES peer reviewed scientific publications, since the start of the project in Sept 2019.

2024

Witkowski, C. R., von der Heydt, A. S., Valdes, P. J., van der Meer, M. T., Schouten, S., & Sinninghe Damsté, J. S. (2024). Continuous sterane and phytane δ13C record reveals a substantial p CO2 decline since the mid-Miocene. Nature Communications, 15(1), 5192.

Malmierca‐Vallet, I., Sime, L. C., Valdes, P. J., Klockmann, M., Vettoretti, G., & Slattery, J. (2024). The Impact of CO2 and climate state on whether Dansgaard–Oeschger type oscillations occur in climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(13), e2024GL110068.

Manta, G., Bach, E., Talento, S., Barreiro, M., Speich, S., & Ghil, M. (2024). The South Atlantic Dipole via multichannel singular spectrum analysis. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 15534.

Stocker, T. F., et al. “Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society.” Surveys in Geophysics (2024): 1-22.

Barbosa, Susana, Maria Eduarda Silva, and Denis-Didier Rousseau. “Characterisation of Dansgaard-Oeschger events in palaeoclimate time series using the Matrix Profile.” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Discussions 2024 (2024): 1-22.

Kypke, Kolja, and Peter Ditlevsen. “On the representation of multiplicative noise in modeling Dansgaard–Oeschger events.” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena (2024): 134215.

Poltronieri, Anna, et al. “Increasing fluctuations in the Arctic summer sea ice cover are expected with future global warming.” Environmental Research: Climate (2024).

Diamond, Rachel, et al. “CMIP6 models rarely simulate Antarctic winter sea‐ice anomalies as large as observed in 2023.” Geophysical Research Letters 51.10 (2024): e2024GL109265.

Springer, Sebastian, et al. “Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections.” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7.1 (2024): 105.

Fabiano, Federico, et al. “Multi-centennial evolution of the climate response and deep ocean heat uptake in a set of abrupt stabilization scenarios with EC-Earth3.” Earth System Dynamics (2024)

Vance, T. R., Abram, N. J., Criscitiello, A. S., Crockart, C. K., DeCampo, A., Favier, V., … & Vallelonga, P. T. An annually resolved chronology for the Mount Brown South ice cores, East Antarctica. Climate of the Past, (2024)

Ramirez, Jorge M., et al. “Probabilistic measures for biological adaptation and resilience.” Physical Review E 109.2 (2024): 024413.

Longo, Iacopo P., Carmen Núñez, and Rafael Obaya. “Critical transitions for scalar nonautonomous systems with concave nonlinearities: some rigorous estimates.” Nonlinearity 37.4 (2024): 045017.

Riechers, Keno, Georg Gottwald, and Niklas Boers. “Glacial abrupt climate change as a multiscale phenomenon resulting from monostable excitable dynamics.” Journal of Climate 37.8 (2024): 2741-2763.

Lohmann, Johannes, et al. “Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.” Science advances 10.12 (2024): eadi4253.

Ben-Yami, Maya, et al. “No critical slowing down in the Atlantic Overturning Circulation in historical CMIP6 simulations.” EGUsphere 2024 (2024): 1-38.

Montero, Marina Martínez, et al. “Lost options commitment: how short-term policies affect long-term scope of action.” Oxford Open Climate Change (2024): kgae004.

Maiocchi, Chiara Cecilia, et al. “Heterogeneity of the attractor of the Lorenz’96 model: Lyapunov analysis, unstable periodic orbits, and shadowing properties.” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 457 (2024): 133970.

Kobras, Melanie, Valerio Lucarini, and Maarten HP Ambaum. “Latitudinal storm track shift in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere.” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 458 (2024): 133926.

Baatsen, Michiel, et al. “Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene.” Climate of the Past 20.1 (2024): 77-90.

Scott, Joseph P., et al. “Intermittent phase dynamics of non-autonomous oscillators through time-varying phase.” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena (2024): 134108.

Lohmann, Johannes, et al. “State-dependent impact of major volcanic eruptions observed in ice-core records of the last glacial period.” Climate of the Past 20.2 (2024): 313-333.

Gao, Qinggang, et al. “Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics.” The Cryosphere 18.2 (2024): 683-703.

Lenton, Timothy M., et al. “Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.” Nature Communications 15.1 (2024): 343.

Cini, M., Zappa, G., Ragone, F. et al. Simulating AMOC tipping driven by internal climate variability with a rare event algorithm. npj Clim Atmos Sci 7, 31 (2024).

Höning, Dennis, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski. “Reversibility of Greenland ice sheet mass loss under artificial carbon dioxide removal scenarios.” Environmental Research Letters (2024).

Rousseau, Denis-Didier, Witold Bagniewski, and Hai Cheng. “A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability.” Scientific Reports 13.1 (2023): 22851.

Ogutu, K. B. Z., F. D’Andrea, A. Groth and M. Ghil, 2024: A coupled climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model: Dynamic and stochastic effects, in Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, 4th ed., edited by M. Lackner, B. Sajjadi, and W.-Y. Chen, Springer Nature, in press.

2023

Vanderveken, Lilian, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix. “Existence and influence of mixed states in a model of vegetation patterns.” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 30.4 (2023): 585-599.

Cannarsa, Piermarco, et al. “Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: Long time behavior and greenhouse effect.” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 33.11 (2023).

Charó, Gisela D., Michael Ghil, and Denisse Sciamarella. “Random templex encodes topological tipping points in noise-driven chaotic dynamics.” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 33.10 (2023).

Dueñas, Longo & Obaya . “Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology”, Chaos 33, 123113 (2023)

Ghil, Michael, and Denisse Sciamarella. “Dynamical Systems, Algebraic Topology, and the Climate Sciences.” EGUsphere (2023): 1-53.

Rousseau, Denis-Didier, Witold Bagniewski, and Hai Cheng. “A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability.” Scientific Reports 13.1 (2023): 22851.

Ben-Yami, M., Skiba, V., Bathiany, S. et al. Uncertainties in critical slowing down indicators of observation-based fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation. Nat Commun 14, 8344 (2023).

Dueñas, Jesús, Iacopo P. Longo, and Rafael Obaya. “Rate-induced tracking for concave or d-concave transitions in a time-dependent environment with application in ecology.” chaos (2023)

Mehling, Oliver, Reyk Börner, and Valerio Lucarini. “Limits to predictability of the asymptotic state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a conceptual climate model.” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena (2023): 134043.

Mitsui, Takahito, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers. “Synchronization phenomena observed in glacial-interglacial cycles simulated in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity.” Earth System Dynamics 2023 (2023): 1-26.

Meccia, Virna L., et al. “Extreme cold events in Europe under a reduced AMOC.” Environmental Research Letters (2023).

Nian, Da, et al. “A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests.” Communications Earth & Environment 4.1 (2023): 470.

Bochow, N., Poltronieri, A., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., Rypdal, M., & Boers, N. (2023). Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet. Nature, 622(7983), 528-536.

Wunderling, Nico, et al. “Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review.” EGUsphere 2023 (2023): 1-45.

Swierczek-Jereczek, Jan, et al. “Time-scale synchronisation of oscillatory responses can lead to non-monotonous R-tipping.” Scientific Reports 13.1 (2023): 2104.

Baker, Jonathan A., et al. “Overturning pathways control AMOC weakening in CMIP6 models.” Geophysical Research Letters 50.14 (2023): e2023GL103381.

Lucarini, Valerio, and Mickaël D. Chekroun. “Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann’s programme and beyond.” Nature Reviews Physics (2023): 1-22.

Bochow, Nils, and Niklas Boers. “The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation.” Science Advances 9.40 (2023): eadd9973.

Wuyts, Bert, and Jan Sieber. “Emergent structure and dynamics of tropical forest-grassland landscapes.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120.45 (2023): e2211853120.

Fohlmeister, Jens, et al. “Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120.36 (2023): e2302283120.

Rowland Adams, Joe, Julian Newman, and Aneta Stefanovska. “Distinguishing between deterministic oscillations and noise.” The European Physical Journal Special Topics (2023): 1-23.

Smith, Taylor, and Niklas Boers. “Reliability of vegetation resilience estimates depends on biomass density.” Nature Ecology & Evolution (2023): 1-10.

Venugopal, Abhijith U., et al. “Antarctic evidence for an abrupt northward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at 32 ka BP.” Nature Communications 14.1 (2023): 5432.

Ghil, Michael. “Climate, zoonosis, and interdisciplinarity.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120.39 (2023): e2311575120.

Sutter, J., et al. “Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise.” Nature climate change (2023): 1-10.

Pöppelmeier, Frerk, Fortunat Joos, and Thomas F. Stocker. “The coupled ice sheet-Earth system model Bern3D v3. 0.” Journal of Climate (2023): 1-39.

Ditlevsen, P., Ditlevsen, S. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nat Commun 14, 4254 (2023)

Gelbrecht, Maximilian, et al. “Differentiable programming for Earth system modeling.” Geoscientific Model Development 16.11 (2023): 3123-3135.

Fohlmeister, Jens, et al. “The role of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation for millennial-scale climate variability during the penultimate glacial.” Communications Earth & Environment 4.1 (2023): 245.

Hummel, Felix, Peter Ashwin, and Christian Kuehn. “Reduction methods in climate dynamics—A brief review.” Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 448 (2023): 133678.

Moreno-Parada, Daniel, et al. “Simulating the Laurentide ice sheet of the Last Glacial Maximum.” The Cryosphere 17.5 (2023): 2139-2156.

Meccia, Virna L., et al. “Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3.” Climate Dynamics 60.11-12 (2023): 3695-3712.

van Westen, René M., et al. “A New Method to Compute Transition Probabilities in Multi‐Stable Stochastic Dynamical Systems: Application to the Wind‐Driven Ocean Circulation.” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 15.5 (2023): e2022MS003456.

Höning, Dennis, et al. “Multistability and transient response of the Greenland ice sheet to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.” Geophysical Research Letters 50.6 (2023): e2022GL101827.

Michel, Simon LL, et al. “Increased wintertime European atmospheric blocking frequencies in General Circulation Models with an eddy-permitting ocean.” npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 6.1 (2023): 50.

Newman, Julian, and Peter Ashwin. “Physical measures of asymptotically autonomous dynamical systems.” Stochastics and Dynamics (2023): 2350020.

Riechers, Keno, et al. “Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial’s climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland.” Earth System Dynamics 14.3 (2023): 593-607.

Recchia, Lucy G., and Valerio Lucarini. “Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South Asian and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate-complexity climate model.” Earth System Dynamics 14.3 (2023): 697-722.

Rousseau, Denis-Didier, Witold Bagniewski, and Youbin Sun. “Detection of abrupt changes in East Asian monsoon from Chinese loess and speleothem records.” Global and Planetary Change (2023): 104154.

Sime, Louise C., et al. “Summer surface air temperature proxies point to near-sea-ice-free conditions in the Arctic at 127 ka.” Climate of the Past 19.4 (2023): 883-900.

Chadwick, Matthew, et al. “Model-data comparison of Antarctic winter sea-ice extent and Southern Ocean sea-surface temperatures during Marine Isotope Stage 5e.” Authorea Preprints (2022).

Wieczorek, Sebastian, Chun Xie, and Peter Ashwin. “Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits.” Nonlinearity 36.6 (2023): 3238.

Alberti, Tommaso, et al. “Chameleon attractors in turbulent flows.” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 168 (2023): 113195.

Bellomo, Katinka, et al. “Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model.” Climate Dynamics (2023): 1-20.

Crisan, Dan, and Michael Ghil. “Asymptotic behavior of the forecast–assimilation process with unstable dynamics.” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 33.2 (2023): 023139.

Bach, Eviatar, and Michael Ghil. “A Multi‐Model Ensemble Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation and Forecasting.” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 15.1 (2023): e2022MS003123.

Wood, Richard A., et al. “A Climate Science Toolkit for High Impact‐Low Likelihood Climate Risks.” Earth’s Future 11.4 (2023): e2022EF003369.

Malmierca-Vallet, I., Sime, L. C., and the D–O community members: Dansgaard–Oeschger events in climate models: review and baseline Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) protocol, Clim. Past, 19, 915–942, 2023

Guarino, Maria Vittoria, et al. “The coupled system response to 250 years of freshwater forcing: Last Interglacial CMIP6–PMIP4 HadGEM3 simulations.” Climate of the Past 19.4 (2023): 865-881.

Botta, Nicola, et al. “Responsibility under uncertainty: which climate decisions matter most?.” Environmental Modeling & Assessment (2023): 1-29.

Bagniewski, Witold, Denis-Didier Rousseau, and Michael Ghil. “The PaleoJump database for abrupt transitions in past climates.” Scientific Reports 13.1 (2023): 4472.

Jackson, Laura C., et al. “Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic hosing model intercomparison project.” Geoscientific Model Development 16.7 (2023): 1975-1995.

Pöppelmeier, Frerk, et al. “Multi-proxy constraints on Atlantic circulation dynamics since the last ice age.” Nature geoscience (2023): 1-8.

Pöppelmeier, Frerk, et al. “The effect of past saturation changes on noble gas reconstructions of mean ocean temperature.” Geophysical Research Letters 50.6 (2023): e2022GL102055.

Ashwin, Peter, Jennifer Creaser, and Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova. “Quasipotentials for coupled escape problems and the gate-height bifurcation.” Physical Review E 107.1 (2023): 014213.

Lucarini, Valerio, et al. “Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave.” Environmental Research Letters 18.1 (2023): 015004.

Izumi, Kenji, Edward Armstrong, and Paul Valdes. “Global footprints of dansgaard-oeschger oscillations in a GCM.” Quaternary Science Reviews 305 (2023): 108016.

Smith, Taylor, et al. “Reliability of Resilience Estimation based on Multi-Instrument Time Series.” Earth System Dynamics Discussions (2022): 1-14. (accepted)

Ferguglia, Olivia, Jost von Hardenberg, and Elisa Palazzi. “Robustness of precipitation Emergent Constraints in CMIP6 models.” Climate Dynamics (2023): 1-12.

Bastiaansen, Robbin, Peter Ashwin, and Anna S. von der Heydt. “Climate Response and Sensitivity: Timescales and Late Tipping Points.”Proceedings of the Royal Society of London,

2022

Krauskopf, Bernd, and Jan Sieber. “Bifurcation analysis of systems with delays: Methods and their use in applications.” Controlling delayed dynamics: advances in theory, methods and applications. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. 195-245.

Lembo, Valerio, et al. “Meridional-energy-transport extremes and the general circulation of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes: dominant weather regimes and preferred zonal wavenumbers.” Weather and Climate Dynamics 3.3 (2022): 1037-1062.

Lohmann, Johannes, and Anders Svensson. “Ice core evidence for major volcanic eruptions at the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events.” Climate of the Past 18.9 (2022): 2021-2043.

Martínez Montero, Marina, et al. “SURFER v2. 0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise.” Geoscientific Model Development 15.21 (2022): 8059-8084.

Meccia, Virna L., et al. “Internal multi-centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation simulated by EC-Earth3.” Climate Dynamics (2022): 1-18.

Lucarini, Valerio, Larissa Serdukova, and Georgios Margazoglou. “Lévy noise versus Gaussian-noise-induced transitions in the Ghil–Sellers energy balance model.” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 29.2 (2022): 183-205.

Gutiérrez, Manuel Santos, and Valerio Lucarini. “On some aspects of the response to stochastic and deterministic forcings.” Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical 55.42 (2022): 425002.

Armstrong, Edward, Kenji Izumi, and Paul Valdes. “Identifying the mechanisms of DO-scale oscillations in a GCM: a salt oscillator triggered by the Laurentide ice sheet.” Climate Dynamics (2022): 1-19.

Hopcroft, Peter O., et al. “Sensitivity of the tropical dust cycle to glacial abrupt climate changes.” Geophysical Research Letters (2022): e2022GL101197.

Simolo, Claudia, and Susanna Corti. “Quantifying the role of variability in future intensification of heat extremes.” Nature Communications 13.1 (2022): 1-13.

Mehling, Oliver, et al. “High-latitude precipitation as a driver of multicentennial variability of the AMOC in a climate model of intermediate complexity.” Climate Dynamics (2022): 1-16.

Lucarini, Valerio, et al. “Typicality of the 2021 Western North America Summer Heatwave.” arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.06197 (2022).

Arellano-Nava, Beatriz, et al. “Destabilisation of the Subpolar North Atlantic prior to the Little Ice Age.” Nature communications 13.1 (2022): 1-8.

Kjær, Helle Astrid, et al. “Canadian forest fires, Icelandic volcanoes and increased local dust observed in six shallow Greenland firn cores.” Climate of the Past 18.10 (2022): 2211-2230.

Boers, Niklas, Michael Ghil, and Thomas F. Stocker. “Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system.” Environmental Research Letters 17.9 (2022): 093006.

Vettoretti, Guido, et al. “Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations.” Nature Geoscience 15.4 (2022): 300-306.

Hummel, Felix, and Christian Kuehn. “Slow manifolds for infinite-dimensional evolution equations.” Commentarii Mathematici Helvetici 97.1 (2022): 61-132.

Kuehn, Christian, and Iacopo P. Longo. “Estimating rate-induced tipping via asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method.” Nonlinearity 35.5 (2022): 2559.

Lux, Kerstin, et al. “Assessing the impact of parametric uncertainty on tipping points of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.” Environmental Research Letters 17.7 (2022): 075002.

Cook, Eliza, et al. “Volcanism and the Greenland ice cores: A new tephrochronological framework for the last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT) based on cryptotephra deposits in three ice cores.” Quaternary science reviews 292 (2022): 107596.

Michel, Simon LL, et al. “Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction.” Nature communications 13.1 (2022): 1-14.

Izumi, Kenji, et al. “Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period.” Climate Dynamics (2022): 1-19.

von der Heydt, Anna S. “Can the Miocene climate inform the future?.” Science 377.6601 (2022): 26-27.

Hopcroft, Peter, and Paul Valdes. “Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene.” Environmental Research Letters (2022).

Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik, et al. “Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records.” Climate of the Past 18.6 (2022): 1275-1294.

Margazoglou, G., et al. “Nonequilibrium ensembles for the three-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations.” Physical Review E 105.6 (2022): 065110.

Ditlevsen, Peter. “The Pleistocene Glacial Cycles and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability.” Atmosphere-Ocean (2022): 1-12.

Walwer, D., M. Ghil, and E. Calais. “A Data-Based Minimal Model of Episodic Inflation Events at Volcanoes. Front.” Earth Sci 10 (2022): 759475.

Westhoff, Julien, et al. “Melt in the Greenland EastGRIP ice core reveals Holocene warm events.” Climate of the Past 18.5 (2022): 1011-1034.

Smith, Taylor, Dominik Traxl, and Niklas Boers. “Empirical evidence for recent global shifts in vegetation resilience.” Nature Climate Change (2022): 1-8.

Riechers, Keno, et al. “Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations.” Climate of the Past 18.4 (2022): 863-893.

Pöppelmeier, Frerk, et al. “Neodymium isotopes as a paleo-water mass tracer: A model-data reassessment.” Quaternary Science Reviews 279 (2022): 107404.

Kobras, Melanie, Maarten HP Ambaum, and Valerio Lucarini. “Eddy saturation in a reduced two-level model of the atmosphere.” Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics (2021): 1-18.

Neamţu, Alexandra, and Christian Kuehn. “Rough center manifolds.” SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis 53.4 (2021): 3912-3957.

Maiocchi, Chiara Cecilia, Valerio Lucarini, and Andrey Gritsun. “Decomposing the dynamics of the Lorenz 1963 model using unstable periodic orbits: Averages, transitions, and quasi-invariant sets.” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 32.3 (2022): 033129.

Boettner, Christopher, and Niklas Boers. “Critical slowing down in dynamical systems driven by nonstationary correlated noise.” Physical Review Research 4.1 (2022): 013230.

Venugopal, Abhijith, et al. “Role of mineral dust in the nitrate preservation during the glacial period: Insights from the RICE ice core.” Global and Planetary Change 209 (2022): 103745.

Boulton, Chris A. “Looking to the (far) future of climate projection.” Global Change Biology 28.2 (2022): 346-348.

Snoll, Brooke, Ruza Ivanovik, Paul Valdez, Amanda Maycock, and Lauren Gregoire. “Effect of orographic gravity wave drag on Northern Hemisphere climate in transient simulations of the last deglaciation.” Climate Dynamics (2022).

Bastiaansen, Robin, Anna von der Heydt, and Henk Dijkstra. “Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world.” Environ. Res. Lett. 17 (2022): 045006.

Kuehn, Christian, Kerstin Lux, and Alexandra Naemtu. “Warning signs for non-Markovian bifurcations: colour blindness and scaling laws” Proc. R. Soc. A. 478 (2022): 20210740.

Boulton, C., T. Lenton, and N. Boers. “Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s.” Nature Climate Change 12 (2022), 271-278.

Ragon, Charline, et al. “Robustness of competing climatic states.” Journal of Climate early online release (2022).

Rousseau, D.-D., W. Bagniewski, and M. Ghil. “Abrupt climate changes and the astronomical theory, are they related?” Climate of the Past 18 (2022): 249-271.

Mitsui, Takahito and Niklas Boers. “Machine learning approach reveals strong link between obliquity amplitude increase and the Mid-Brunhes transition.” Quaternary Science Reviews 277 (2022): 107344.

2021

Good, Peter, et al. “How might a collapse in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rainfall over tropical South America?.” Climate Resilience and Sustainability 1.1 (2022): e26.

Gelbrecht, Maximilian, Niklas Boers, and Jürgen Kurths. “Neural partial differential equations for chaotic systems.” New Journal of Physics 23.4 (2021): 043005.

Charó, Gisela, M.D. Chekroun, D. Sciamarella, and Michael Ghil. “Noise-driven topological changes in chaotic dynamics.” Chaos 31 (2021), 103115.

Kuehn, C., A. Neamtu, and S. Sonner. “Random attractors via pathwise mild solutions for stochastic parabolic evolution equations.” Journal of Evolution Equations 21 (2021): 2631-2663.

Engel, M., M.-A. Gkogkas, and C. Kuehn. “Homogenization of fully-coupled chaotic fast-slow systems via intermediate stochastic regularization.” Journal of Statistical Physics 183 (2021): 25.

Newman, J., M. Lucas, and A. Stefanovska. “Stabilization of cyclic processes by slowly varying forcing.” Chaos 31.12 (2021): 123129.

Engel, M., Felix Hummel, and Christian Kuehn. “Connecting a direct and a Galerkin approach to slow manifolds in infinite dimensions.” Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society Series B, 8 (2021), 252-266.

Riechers, Keno and Niklas Boers. “Significance of uncertian phasing between the onsets of stadial-interstadial transitions in different Greenland ice core proxies.” Climate of the Past 17 (2021): 1751-1775.

Tomasini, Umberto Maria, and Valerio Lucarini. “Predictors and predictands of linear response in Spatially Extended Systems.” European Physical Journal Special Topics 230 (2021): 2813-2832.

Ashwin, Peter and Julien Newman. (2021). “Physical measures and tipping probabilities for chaotic attractors of asymptotically autonomous systems.” The European Physical Journal Special Topics 230, 3235-3238.

Bagniewski, W., M. Ghil, and D. D. Rousseau. “Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records.” Chaos 31.11 (2021): 113129.

Mitsui, Takahito and Niklas Boers. “Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset with echo state networks.” Environmental Research Letters 16.7 (2021): 074024.

Pöppelmeier, Frank, D.J. Jansen, S.L. Jaccard, and Thomas F. Stocker. “Modeling the marine chromium cycle: New constraints on global-scale processes.” Biogeosciences 18.19 (2021): 5447-5463.

Boers, Niklas. “Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.” Nature Climate Change 11 (2021): 680-688.

Hummel, Felix. “Sample paths of white noise in spaces with dominating mixed smoothness.” Banach Journal of Mathematical Analysis 15 (2021): 54.

Zagli, Niccolò, Valerio Lucarini, and Grigorios A. Pavliotis. “Spectroscopy of phase transitions for multiagent systems.” Chaos 31.6 (2021): 061103.

Boettner, Christopher, Georg Klinghammer, Niklas Boers, Thomas Westerwald, and Norbert Marwan. “Early-warning signals for Cenozoic climate transitions.” Quaternary Science Reviews 270 (2021).

Ciemer, Catrin, Ricarda Winkelmann, Jürgen Kurths, and Niklas Boers. “Impact of an AMOC weakening on the stability of the southern Amazon rainforest.” The European Physical Journal Special Topics 230 (2021): 3065-3073.

Lohmann, Johannes, Daniele Castellana, Peter Ditlevsen, and Henk Dijkstra. “Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point.” Earth System Dynamics 12 (2021): 819-835.

Kuehn, Christian, and Christian Bick. “A universal route to explosive phenomena.” Science Advances 7.16 (2021): eabe3824.

Rietkirk, M., et al. “Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation.” Science 374(6564) (2021): eabj0359.

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