Publications

Here you can find a list of all TiPES publications, since the start of the project in Sept 2019.

2021

Ogutu, Keroboto BZ, et al. “Coupled climate-economy-ecology (CoCEB) modeling: A dynamic approach.” Available at SSRN 3697299 (2020).

Gelbrecht, Maximilian, et al. “Analysis of a bistable climate toy model with physics-based machine learning methods.” The European Physical Journal Special Topics (2021): 1-11.

Margazoglou, Georgios, et al. “Dynamical landscape and multistability of a climate model.” Proceedings of the Royal Society A 477.2250 (2021): 20210019.

Tomasini, Umberto Maria, and Valerio Lucarini. “Predictors and predictands of linear response in spatially extended systems.” The European Physical Journal Special Topics (2021): 1-20.

Boers, Niklas, and Martin Rypdal. “Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118.21 (2021).

Faranda, Davide, et al. “Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy<? A3B2 show [feature]?>.” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 31.4 (2021): 041105.

Galfi, V. M., Lucarini, V., Ragone, F. and Wouters, J. (2021) Applications of large deviation theory in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate science. Rivista del Nuovo Cimento. ISSN 1826-9850 (In Press)

Santos Gutiérrez, Manuel, et al. “Reduced-order models for coupled dynamical systems: Data-driven methods and the Koopman operator.” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 31.5 (2021): 053116.

Vannitsem, Stéphane, Jonathan Demaeyer, and Michael Ghil. “Extratropical low‐frequency variability with ENSO forcing: A reduced‐order coupled model study.” Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2021): e2021MS002530.

Pierini, Stefano, and Michael Ghil. “Tipping points induced by parameter drift in an excitable ocean model.” Scientific Reports 11.1 (2021): 1-14.

Ashwin, P., Newman, J. Physical invariant measures and tipping probabilities for chaotic attractors of asymptotically autonomous systems. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. (2021).

Braun, Tobias, et al. “Detection of dynamical regime transitions with lacunarity as a multiscale recurrence quantification measure”, Nonlinear Dynamics (2021)

Ehstand, Noémie, Christian Kuehn, and Cinzia Soresina. “Numerical continuation for fractional PDEs: sharp teeth and bloated snakes.” Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 98 (2021): 105762

2020

• Lucarini, Valerio, and Tamás Bódai. “Global stability properties of the climate: Melancholia states, invariant measures, and phase transitions.” Nonlinearity 33.9 (2020): R59.
• Eichinger, Katharina, Christian Kuehn, and Alexandra Neamţu. “Sample paths estimates for stochastic fast-slow systems driven by fractional brownian motion.” Journal of Statistical Physics (2020): 1-45.
• Blasco, Javier, et al. “Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal drag on the Antarctic Ice Sheet under Last Glacial Maximum conditions.” The Cryosphere 15.1 (2021): 215-231.
• Hummel, Felix. “Boundary value problems of elliptic and parabolic type with boundary data of negative regularity.” Journal of Evolution Equations (2021): 1-63.
• Rousseau, Denis-Didier, Pierre Antoine, and Youbin Sun. “How dusty was the last glacial maximum over Europe?.” Quaternary Science Reviews 254 (2021): 106775.
• Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik, Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Håvard Rue, and Martin Rypdal. “Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling.” Earth System Dynamics 11, no. 2 (2020): 329-345.
• Ditlevsen, Peter, Takahito Mitsui, and Michel Crucifix. “Crossover and peaks in the Pleistocene climate spectrum; understanding from simple ice age models.” Climate Dynamics 54.3 (2020): 1801-1818.
• Anna, S., Peter Ashwin, Charles D. Camp, Michel Crucifix, Henk A. Dijkstra, Peter Ditlevsen, and Timothy M. Lenton. “Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record.” Global and Planetary Change (2020): 103399.
• Boers, Niklas, Jürgen Kurths, and Norbert Marwan. “Complex systems approaches for Earth system data analysis.” Journal of Physics: Complexity (2020).
• Pöppelmeier, Frerk, et al. “Influence of elevated Nd fluxes on the northern Nd isotope end member of the Atlantic during the early Holocene.” Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology: e2020PA003973.
• Pfister, Patrik L., and Thomas F. Stocker. “Changes in local and global climate feedbacks in the absence of interactive clouds: Southern Ocean-climate interactions in two intermediate-complexity models.” Journal of Climate (2020): 1-51.
• Bellomo, Katinka, et al. “Future climate change scenarios shaped by inter-model differences in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation response.” (2020).
• Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich, Thomas F. Stocker, and Fortunat Joos. “Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO2 emissions.” Environmental Research Letters (2020).
• Vissio, Gabriele, et al. “Ranking IPCC Model Performance Using the Wasserstein Distance.” Geophysical Research Letters (2020): e2020GL089385.
• Coumou, D. & De Luca, P. (2020) Global warming makes weather in boreal summer more persistent. under review. Weather & Clim. Dynamics Discussions
• Hassanibesheli, F, Boers, N., Kurths, J. (2020). Reconstructing Complex System Dynamics from Time Series: A Method Comparison. New Journal of Physics
• Ciemer, C., Rehm, L., Kurths, J., Donner, RV, R. Winkelmann, R., Boers, N. (2020). An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, Environmental Research Letters.
• Svensson, A. et al. (2020) Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period. Climate of the Past 16.
• Ghil., M and Lucarini, V. (2020) The physics of climate variability and climate change. Rev. Mod. Phys. 92, 035002
• De Luca, P et al. (2020). Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean. Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805
• Kuehn, C., Soresina, C. (2020) Numerical continuation for a fast-reaction system and its cross-diffusion limit. SN Partial Differ. Equ. Appl. 1, 7.
• Fohlmeister, J., et al. (2020). Global Controls on the Stable Carbon Isotope Composition of Speleothems, Geochimica et Cosmochemica Acta
• Ghil, M., 2020: Hilbert problems for the geosciences in the 21st century — 20 years later, Centennial Issue on Nonlinear Geophysics: Accomplishments of the Past, Challenges of the Future.
• Thomas Westerhold, T, Marwan, N. et al (2020) An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 Million Years. Science
• Jackson, L. and Wood, L 2020: Fingerprints for Early Detection of Changes in the AMOC. J. Climate, 33
• Nehrbass-Ahles, C. et al. and Stocker, T. (2020) Abrupt CO2 release to the atmosphere under glacial and early interglacial climate conditions. Science
• Waltgenbach, S., Scholz, D., Spötl, C., Riechelmann, D.F.C., Jochum, K., Fohlmeister, J., Schröder-Ritzrau, A., 2020, Climate and structure of the 8.2 ka event reconstructed from three speleothems from Germany. Global and Planetary Change
• Santos Gutiérrez, M., Lucarini, V. (2020). Response and Sensitivity Using Markov Chains. J Stat Phys.
• Lembo, V., Lucarini, V. & Ragone, F. (2020). Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model. Scientific Reports 10, 8668
• Bodai, T., Lucarini, V., Lunkeir, F. (2020) Can we use linear response theory to assess geoengineering strategies? Chaos. 30, 023124
• Lucarini, V. and Gritsun, A. (2020) A new mathematical framework for atmospheric blocking events: Climate Dynamics. 54:575–598
• Horstmeyer, Leonhard and Kuehn, Christian (2020) Adaptive voter model on simplicial complexes. Phys. Rev. E 101, 022305
• Meccia, V. L., Fabiano, F., Davini, P., & Corti, S. (2020). Stochastic parameterizations and the climate response to external forcing: An experiment with EC-Earth. Geophysical Research Letters
• Blasco, J., Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., and Montoya, M. Exploring the impact of atmospheric forcing and basal boundary conditions on the simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Last Glacial Maximum. The Cryosphere Discuss. In review, 2020.
• Malmierca-Vallet, Irene., Louise C Sime, Paul J. Valdes, Julia C. Tindall (2020) Sea-ice feedbacks influence the isotopic signature of Greenland Ice Sheet elevation changes: Last Interglacial HadCM3 simulations Climate of the Past, in review.
• Kageyama, Masa., Louise C. Sime et al. (2020) A multi-model CMIP6 study of Arctic sea ice at 127 ka: Sea ice data compilation and model differences Climate of the Past Discussions, in review.
• Rousseau, Denis-Didier., et al (2020) Dansgaard-Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view. Climate of the Past, 16(2). Pages 713-727.
• Therre, S., Jens Fohlmeister, J. et al. (2020) Climate Induced Speleothem Radiocarbon Variability on Socotra Island from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Younger Dryas Climate of the Past, 16, 409–421.
• Ghil, Michael, and Eric Simonnet. “Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Nonautonomous Dynamical Systems, and the Climate Sciences.” In Mathematical Approach to Climate Change and its Impacts: MAC2I, edited by Piermarco Cannarsa, Daniela Mansutti, and Antonello Provenzale, 3–81. Springer International Publishing, 2020.

2019

• Marangio, L., Sedro, J., Galatolo, S., Di Garbo, A. & M. Ghil (2019) Arnold Maps with Noise: Differentiability and Non-monotonicity of the Rotation Number, J.Stat.Physics
• Ashwin, P. & von der Heydt, A.S. J. Stat. Phys. (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x.
• Lucarini, Valerio (2019) Stochastic resonance for nonequilibrium systems, Phys. Rev. E 100, 062124 
• Grinsted, Aslak, Peter Ditlevsen, and Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen. “Normalized US hurricane damage estimates using area of total destruction, 1900− 2018.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019).
• Simonsen, M et al. East Greenland ice core dust record reveals timing of Greenland ice sheet advances, Nature communications, 2019