In this WP we will test whether our models are too stable to adequately represent the observed past tipping events.
Through a cross-model and model-data evaluation of tipping events, and associated TEs, we will examine the ability of models to simulate these events. In delivering this objective, we will employ hierarchies of IPCC relevant models – from fast EMICs to fully CMIP6-compliant ESMs – alongside ice sheet models. There will be a tight symbiosis between WP1 and WP2 with data products from WP1 will be used to evaluate these models, and output from the models from WP2 being used to assess EWSs in WP1 and climate sensitivity in WP3. The concrete objectives of this WP are:

  1. To assess the climate stability of a suite of state-of-the-art climate models. These are the EMICs Bern3D, CLIMBERX, and FAMOUS, as well as the ESMs CESM, HadCM3, and UKESM1. This goal primarily feeds into TiPES Objective 1.
  2. In delivering this assessment on model stability, to ensure that all WP2 work has the maximum positive impact on, and contribution to, the IPCC process.
  3. To implement proxies directly in models to ensure that they can be evaluated against the WP1 da-tasets. This will help maintain European leadership in the research area of ESM isotope code development.